Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Moldova Elections

November 30, 2010

As promised, I am writing to you now regarding the elections in Moldova that took place on the 28th and polls closed about 45 hours ago.
The good news is that the Alliance in favor of closer ties with the EU gained seats and now has 59 out of 101; the bad news is that to elect a President, 61 members of Parliament must agree and the other 42 seats are held by Communist party members.
I will comment on the election process and then on the current situation and prospects for post-election activity.
As to the process, I was certified as an international observer and visited 9-10 sites in the southeast part of Moldova--closest to the Transniestria region and the Ukraine border.  Two cities were regional centers with towns about the size of Battle Creek and they had 5 of the sites. We also visited small villages with populations of 1,000 or even less and we were in 4-5 sites (my memory is not perfect here).
I also participated in a debriefing at the USA Embassy here with about 20 other people and their comments were quite in line with what I found and they were all over the country. Essentially, this was a fair election with few problems and no significant corruption.  Over 50 % of the population turned out--more outside of the capital city than inside, probably due to low student turnout but some students did vote at their home villages rather than in the city. The election was validated because > 30 % participated.

There were NGO, international and local politcal party observers at all the sites we visited although at one or two small villages, we questioned whether the various political parties had their represetatives or whether locals just represented them for the day. Practically every site reported a very high turnout compared to recent elections.  The weather was nice and there had been a lot of advertising by the parties.  The one exception was in a village that we were told, by members of a nearby village we visited 1/2 hour earlier, was a communist stronghold. The representatives in that place  told us there was a low turnout there. I'm not sure if that is true or why, but that was the story we received. I found the election officials well prepared and seemingly very competent.  They had no problems answering any question we posed--via our translator.

The country uses a mobile ballot box for those unable to vote that day.  Officials, along with observers, visit homes of people unable to travel.  In cities, no problems can really occur because numerous people accompany such a box.  In the villages, it is hard to say.  All the people know one another so how they implement safeguards--not sure! One of the dilemmas is that it is the villages that are so poor and they suffered under 8 years with communist rule out of the last 10 (may be not exact figures, but close). Yet, they are old people and the vote communist --probably because they have done so all their life--but the communist did not really help them. Several villages--with 1,000 registered voters--said they had 30% who had left the country for jobs outside th country as there is no opportunity in the villages. So, the turnout may seem low compared to registered, but in fact not too bad if you subtract 30% from the possible votes.

So now what? The negotiations are underway. While the communist received the largest perentage of any party (41%) there seems little chance they can form a government as all other parties say ( at least for now) they will not align with them. So, the pro-European 4 parties need to find 2 communists who will vote with them to elect a President.  That is what is going on today--probably tomorrow and for who knows how long. No one seems to want another 1-2 years with  an interim President, but the communists have stuck together.
The talk is that many of the 30% of villagers currently working outside the country (Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, Romania) would return if the pro-EU can get power. There are also apparently some potential investors looking at the low wages here as attractive.
Moldova was a part of Romania in the early part of tis century (independent before that and part of USSR after that), so by law a number of Moldovans can claim romanian citizenship through grandparents--etc.
So what? In early 2011, Romania is supposed to be eligible for free movement of "its citizens" into other EU coutnries for work, etc. So, I've heard about 100,000 Moldovans can also be Romanians and work wherever they want in EU.  It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. the web sites below look at these issues.

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/406921-moldovas-diaspora-looking-way-home

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/295311-back-door-promised-land


You ask, do you have some photos? My answer, yes, of course. Some from elections and a couple others re some recent activities. I'll likely do at least one or two more blogs before leaving Moldova!

Ballot box and observant election official nearby



Lining up to vote

A small crowd, but all seem patient
Part of our informal exit polling-Vlad asks some Qs.
Election workers check registration


Milling around before and after voting

Ballot is about 3 feet long; you just vote for one person/party/

Cities register by street names; villages alphaetically by family names as street names are basically non-existant.


Temporary Office of Interim Moldovan President Gimpu; located 50 yards from my apartment.Jouralists with cameras setting up fo photo shoots--occurs at least weekly now!

O.K. That's it. comments or Questions are welcomed!
 I'll be in touch again soon!

Bill

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